Iranian regime may collapse
If you have been reading this blog, my previous post on Putin explained the divide between Iran and Russia, and the interests at play with Israel. Today, Putin warned Iran not to kill civilians in Israel. You should also read my post, Why Iran Can’t War, to understand how war may actually collapse the Iranian regime.
Iran’s politics are based on largely on a fanatical, religious conquest ideology, which includes working towards the destruction of Israel. When Israel hurts Iran, Iran is under an extreme ideological pressure to respond, to save face, and live up to its ideological goals. If it fails to do so, the regime can ultimately collapse. Israel can utilize this to its advantage. If Israel continues to escalate after each attack directly against Iran, Iran cannot directly respond. The Iranian regime is in trouble. If it doesn’t respond, the pressure increases as the ideological forces that make up its political infrastructure become weakened, and divided, between the natural compulsion to respond and strike Israel, and the interest in self-preservation and going forward with the nuclear program.
Every time Israel strikes back and escalates, this increases the internal pressure on the regime in Iran. Iran is not being united by this pressure, but divided between it’s two possible strategic options, and the binary decision of striking back or peacefully developing its nuclear weapons, which the regime relies on ultimately for its future survival. This is the key ideological divide amongst the Iranian regime. The Kurds and Arabs and Sunnis and pro-democracy movements at this point should all be united against the regime, to give the Iranian people a chance to stand up to the regime and demand free and fair elections, so the Iranian people sort out their own dispute. Israel should call for democracy in Iran, free and fair elections, and empowerment of Kurdish Arab and other ethnic groups, and an end to Iran’s ambitions of controlling the Middle East.
Israel should publicly announce that any Iranian attack from Hezbolla or from Iran, and Israel will respond with an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This drives a wedge right down the center of the ideological divide between those in the Iranian regime want to help retaliate against Israel to maintain their ideological strength, and those who want to preserve the ideology by obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel can continue this tit for tat, taking advantage of the growing pressure of this divide each time. Israel doesn’t have to destroy Iran’s nuclear program in one shot. Each time it bombs and damages Iran’s nuclear program or oil facilities, it puts Iran back into this Hobson’s choice of two bad and uncertain options.