Putin, Iran is not your proxy
By Daniel Ben Abraham
Putin’s use of Iran as a proxy is not like America’s alliance with Israel. America’s alliance with Israel is built on shared Judeo-Christian values and democracy in a world that increasingly targets voices of universal morality. It’s a misguided version of old adage, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, or at least not my immediate enemy. Russia’s alliances, however, are based on power and expansionist agenda. Russia wants to take Ukraine, China wants to take Taiwan, North Korea wants to take South Korea, and Iran wants to take the Middle East. Iran even said it wants to control the Islamic holy sites of Mecca and Medina. Some alliance. Meanwhile the U.S. and Israel want to prevent conquest and expansionist wars.
In reality, Russia makes the mistake of not realizing its true values are completely opposite to Iran’s, and Iranian-style Islamic fundamentalism is just as much a threat to Russia. Up to 25% of the Russian military is Muslim, and incidents like the Dagestan Airport and recent church terror attack are not flukes, but warnings.
Russia is fueling this growing threat to its own interests, merely because it believes Israel and the U.S. are ahead of it line. What could be worse than fueling a fire near your neighbors house, just to burn his home before yours?
Underlying it all, Russia’s alliance with Iran is not like the U.S. and Israel. In fact, both Israel and the U.S. are more closely aligned in fundamental Judeo -Christian and Western values than Russia is with Iran. This is true no matter how much Putin wants to pretend Russia is not part of the enemy “West.”
Russia’s role regarding the Israel- Iran conflict is a complex one. On the one hand, Putin had a childhood friend who was Jewish, whose parents were very kind to him, giving him a general favorable view of the Jewish people. Regarding the state of Israel, Putin once remarked that it’s a “Russian speaking country with over 1 million Russian speakers, drawing a cultural and language similarity.
On the other hand, Putin utilizes Iran, now during the Ukraine war more than ever. Putin relies on Iran, China, North Korea, and other BRICS economic cooperative nations for both military supplies and to avoid U.S. sanctions. Russia also suspects that the more resources the U.S. spends on aiding Israel, the less the U.S. will have to support Ukraine, if not in printable dollars, at least an actual military hardware.
The U.S. has been completely bipolar with regards to our relationship with Russia, like dealing with Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
All someone needs to do is look at the stare-down photo between Putin and Obama to understand that these two deeply didn’t like each other. But not many know, part of it was over Israel. President Obama in December 2016, after Trump was elected, secretly fought for U.N. Security Council Resolution 2334, which makes Israel an occupier of Jerusalem under binding, irreversible, international law. Putin, threatened to protect Israel after the U.S. turned on her, and to veto an even more severe U.S.-pushed resolution against Israel.
With Trump, Russia was dealing with Dr. Jekyll. It was invited back to the G8. Trump’s artistic combination of respect, admiration, and also strength and unbureaucratic, instantaneous action worked. Trump is the only president this century under whom Russia did not invade another country; after invading Georgia under Bush, Crimea under Obama, and Ukraine under Biden.
In the last U.N. Security Council resolution calling for a cease-fire over Ramadan, the Biden-Harris-Obama team pushed for it with Obama personally traveling to 10 Downing Street days before the vote to meet with Prime Minister Sunak, obviously to prevent a UK veto.
Democrats attack Trump for “weakening NATO”, but it was the blind bluff to expand NATO Kamala Harris announced in Berlin that triggered Putin. Such idle threats from a post-Afghanistan-withdrawal U.S., already one war in the Middle East months into the Biden administration, that drew Russia into Ukraine.
While Putin likely did not give Iran a green light for October 7th, Iran felt empowered from having the union of Russia and China at its back. Putin has been keeping tight reins however on this risky venture, meeting with Iranian leaders and Hamas in Russia, not only after October 7th, but after virtually all major events, including the first volley with Iran the U.S. was drawn into.
Israel is not seeking to dominate the region through uncontrollable proxy groups like Iran, merely to survive. And that’s why with Iran’s current leadership, it will always be a liability to Russia. And China.
In the end, Putin must realize that his initial instinct to be close to Israel is a strategic opportunity to his own interests. The fact that he is in part responsible for this war should at least give him patience with regards to Israel. If strategically smart, he may even see the opportunity for a better alliance.
While Russia criticized the attack of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran as an “escalation”, it has a deep respect for the Israeli intelligence apparatus, able to strike inside Iran and remove top players from the board. Russia also acts as though certain that Israel was behind the helicopter crash that killed Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in May.
While Israel’s assassination deterrent may not work against Islamic fundamentalists, rational world leaders like Putin, do note the power of such intelligence capabilities. Now that the current U.S. Administration is afraid to rock the boat pre-election, conflicts are likely to escalate. With that, Israel’s increasingly bold assassinations are a deterrent to the rational and a remover of those who will not be reasoned with.
The Russia Ukraine war has become a clumsy “escalating stalemate” of a bureaucratic hive mind in NATO that prints money with no awareness of the consequences, and Russia, unaware of how to draw the line between self-defense and the expansionism NATO fears.
Metaphysically, however, the opportunity for Israel to step into the role of being a larger peacemaker in the world is present in many opportunities, including Russia-Ukraine. Some could analogize that
a well-armed NATO on Russia’s doorstep with Ukraine, is not unlike the Arabs’ desire for an unlimited and well-armed Palestinian state on Israel’s borders. Both could be a steppingstone to encourage and facilitate attack. And both nations seek to expand territory in defensive response to active threats from strengthening neighbors.
If wars are caused by the ideological polarization around humanity’s unanswered moral questions, the Russia-Ukraine one might be, “why Russia should, or shouldn’t gain from violating the fundamental international law principle of nonaggression and get to keep the territories it seized in Eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine, through with use of long-range drones and missiles, has been able to drive the Russia’s Black Sea Fleet away from Crimea. However, retaking the peninsula would be near-impossible. So perhaps that military results should be reflected in the diplomatic resolution; limits on Russia’s naval power in the black sea, but maintaining Crimea. Ukraine is expanding its presence in the Black Sea, building at least two naval bases with British financial support. The U.S. has been operating two to three warships in the Black Sea since 2021, and expanding bases in Romania that give it air increased coverage. Both of which Russia sees as escalations also. However, Russia should not look at this as increasing encroachment alone. Turkey has been increasingly allied with Russia, and increasingly hostile to NATO, and Israel.
As I explained in my blog post, Why Iran Can’t War, Iran has significant limitations in its capacity to project a traditional military conflict against Israel, 1000 kilometers away. A third of its missiles in its last volley did not even reach Israel. Add to that, a conflict against Iran is one that many of the nations of the world would align behind, increasing repercussions to Putin and his ongoing Ukraine gambit.
Iran doesn’t have the technology to launch missiles and drones without half of them being lost. It doesn’t have the military resources to to transport troops and equipment 1000 kilometers before the first shot is fired, let alone by surprise. As its leadership’s ideology is empowered by hatred of Israel, it will likely tear itself apart if it cannot retaliate sufficiently. Yet if Iran does, it opens itself to attack on its nuclear facilities. In reality, the regime is capable, only of beating women with sticks for trying to vote or not wearing a Hijab, but lacks tried and true military capabilities.
Increasing war will turn the Saudis and other Arab states to Israel’s side. The polarizing lines of the world against Israel will change to Israel, and all those threatened by Iran against Iran. The pressure on Russia will increase to half a dozen Arab states at least, plus Europe, plus the United States’ second front, with significant international cooperation. The more conflict with Iran continues, the more Iran is wedged apart from Russia, and the more Putin‘s ability to use Iran to facilitate its war against Ukraine is weakened. With A democratic movement in Iran, Kurds, Arabs, Sunnies, and ISIS-k, not to mention Russian fury, Iran’s leadership could implode from a war.
As far as Lebanon, the Torah tells Jews to always offer peace before beginning a war. Ancient Israel was attacked enough and fought enough wars to not be pacifist. The offer is strategic. If you can divide the ideology of your enemies, you’ll have to fight all the less, if at all.
Right now the Lebanese people have no reason to fight Hezbollah. If Israel threatened to permanently expand to ancient Israel which extended north of Tyr, they would. International law that prohibits Israel from taking land in response to Arab attack, is one that encourages attacking Israel, because it takes away the deterrent of people willing to die to kill. The correct threat in combination with a piece offer can avoid this war as well. A potential Palestinian state in southern Lebanon instead of Israel? One could only say, that the two deserve each other.